Dear CFP Commitee,
With one week to go in the regular season, the standings are as follows:
- Ohio State
- Notre Dame
- Oklahoma State
- Penn State
I get that if you are out of the top 10 at this point, it will be very difficult to make the play offs. This obviously makes the next couple weeks very interesting.
Let us start by examining the Iron Bowl this week.
The winner of the Iron Bowl will be going to the SEC championship game to face Georgia. This makes a very interesting predicament for the Auburn Tigers. As a two loss team, would you, the CFP committee, leave out a SEC champion that had to beat Alabama and Georgia to get there? If that happens, does a two-loss B1G ten champion in Ohio State make it as well? Realistically speaking the following senario could happen:
Auburn beats Alabama in the Iron Bowl
Auburn beats Georgia in the SEC CCG
Auburn is 10-2 and SEC Champs, Alabama is 11-1 and Georgia, if they dont lose to Georgia Tech this week, is 10-2. Auburn, at this point would 100% be in, Alabama would be the 4th seed (because bias) and Georgia would be out.
Clemson beats Miami
At this point, both ACC teams would be 1-loss teams, do you include both? No you wouldn’t. Clemson would be in as ACC Champs and Miami would be the 5th seed, and officially not back.
TCU beats Baylor
Oklahoma beats West Virginia
TCU beats Oklahoma, for yet another 2-loss conference champ
If Oklahoma and TCU lose one more game that isnt the CCG, the Big 12 would effectively be out. But in the senario described above, TCU and Oklahoma would be 11-2 and would be on the outside looking in at the 4th spot.
So at this point, we have 2 spots filled (Auburn and Clemson) with 3 teams looking in (Alabama, TCU, Oklahoma)
Ohio State beats Wisconsin in the B1G CCG, becoming a 2 loss champ.
Wisconsin is now 11-1 and drops to 10, because their SOS is soft and Ohio State is on the outside looking in, joining Bama, Miami and Oklahoma.
Pac 12 was out of contention with a Washington loss a few weeks ago. USC as conference chamipions has a very small chance, but unlikely.
So after all the P5 conference games we have the following ranking.
- Clemson 11-1
- Auburn 10-2
- Alabama 11-1
- Miami 11-1
- Georgia 10-2
- Ohio State 10-2
- TCU 11-2
- Oklahoma 11-2
- USC 10-2
- Notre Dame 9-2
- Wisconsin 11-1
- Penn State 9-2
- Oklahoma State 9-2
That brings us to the AAC, the only other conference to be ranked this late into the season.
Central Florida faces #23 South Florida in Orlando for its spot in the AAC Championship game. For argument’s sake, lets give them the W.
Central Florida would then play currently ranked #18 Memphis
If Central Florida runs the table and the above happen, is it possible that an undefeated UCF makes the CFP? Here are 4 reasons why.
- UCF would be the only undefeated team in the country.
- UCF would end the season with 2 ranked wins and regular season wins over Navy, Memphis and a P5 win over Maryland, who played the arguablly the toughest slate of games in the B1G with backup quarterbacks.
- UCF has beat teams by an average of 4 TDs including 2-40 point victories, 3-30 point victories, 3-20 point victories and 1-10 point victory.
- UCF is statistically one of the best offenses in the country, coming in at 7.57 yards a play, only behind Oklahoma at 8.32 ypg.
Yes, UCF is a G5 team, but there is no reason why a 12-0 UCF should not be in the CFP.
If chaos ensues and if Alabama, Miami, Clemson, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Georgia, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State, TCU, and Penn State all lose this weekend (chance of that happeneing is .0000625%) would that make a better case for UCF?
A Concerned CFP Fan
Editor’s Note: This is a hypothetical senario that has less than a .0000625% chance at happening.