Outside of March Madness, the College Football bowl week is the best betting period. Starting this Saturday, we will have games every Tuesday to Thursday for 2 weeks. Over the season, if you were following my picks on twitter, I went 68-56-2 raking in 16.68 units. So for the next 2 weeks, I will be picking every single game. Some picks may be made on twitter, so be sure to follow me @thelastsnap_. Sorry for the shameless plug.
But here is the slate for this Saturday.
Troy vs North Texas
Bowl: R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl | Time: Noon
Line: Troy -7
Back in September, Troy beat then #25 LSU on homecoming night for the Tigers. Easily the biggest upset this season by a small school. Since then, Troy went 6-1 winning the Sun Belt Conference with a record of 10-2 on the season. Troy had the 26th best total defense this season, allowing only 17.5 points a game this season. North Texas on the other hand has a top 20 offense, but gives up too many points, and wee exposed on championship weekend, in their 41-16 loss to FAU. This may be an old rivalry game, but Troy by a million.
Western Kentucky vs Georgia State
Bowl: Autonation Cure Bowl | Time: 1:30 PM
Line: Under 53.5
It’t kind of sad that Western Kentucky was one of the teams that lost to 2-10 Illinois this year but still found their game and went 6-6 to become bowl eligible. However, Georgia State is no better sitting at 6-5 and averaging less than 20 points a game. This will be an unwatchable game, and one that coincides with the Bears and Lions Saturday afternoon game. This will be a dud.
#25 Boise State vs Oregon
Bowl: Las Vegas Bowl | Time: 2:30 PM
Line: Boise State +7, Over 61.5
In the last 2 weeks of the season, Boise State lost to Fresno State 28-17 and then beat the Bulldogs for the WAC Championship 17-14 on their way to a 10-3 season. Oregon on the other hand is aggressive and has been since the comeback of QB Justin Herbert, but has lost their coach Willie Taggart to FSU and Royce Freeman to draft prep which does change things. Without Herbert as the QB, Oregon went 1-4 and averaged close to 40 points less. Take the points on this one and the over, you will not lose both.
Marshall vs. Colorado State
Bowl: Gildan New Mexico Bowl | Time: 2:30
Line: Marshall +5.5
Marshall allows less that 20 points a game and is a top 25 defense in the country. THe Thundering herd was on a hot 6-1 but things went south after Week 8, going 1-4 to finish the season. Colorado State however is a 10 offense, gaining over 500 yards a game. However, we know Marshall can compete. The herd has out gained 8 of its past 10 opponents. Whereas, Colorado State has gone 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games, 0-2 SU in bowl games since 2013. Marshall is 4-0 SU in bowl games. Take the points because the ML has little value.
Middle Tennessee State vs. Arkansas State
Bowl: Raycom Media Camellia Bowl| Time: 7 PM
Line: MTSU +3.5 and Under 63.5
Over the season the teams are a combine 7-15 O/u, 11-11 ATS and 13-10 Straight Up. This makes it really hard to judge 2 mediocre teams. However take this line from the past three Raycom Media Camellia Bowl. In 2014, Bowling Green beat Alabama State 33-28 for a total score of 61 points. In 2015 Appalachian State beat Ohio 31-29 for a total score of 60 points. In 2016 App State beat Toledo 31-28 for a total score of 59 points. If I could bet a score, I would say the score will be exactly 58 points. Besides, both teams are turnover machines at 20 turnovers on the year.